Hey Sharks, Fin here. Big week coming up ahead with the Mag 7 earnings officially kicking off. But first, here’s what we’ve got for you today:
Tesla’s trying to turn autonomy into recurring revenue.
Meta received an analyst love letter.
Apple is doing its best impression of a sinking ship.
Nvidia just got a potential China tailwind.
Let’s dive in. 🦈
🚕 Tesla: Robotaxi momentum + “FSD subscriptions only” in Feb
What happened (the facts):
Tesla has started running some robotaxi rides in Austin without in-car safety monitors (at least for certain rides/vehicles), per reports and Musk’s comments.
Tesla is also moving Full Self-Driving (FSD) to subscription-only after Feb 14, 2026, ending the one-time purchase option (and it’s also pay walling previously standard Autopilot features on new vehicles).
Why Wall Street cares:
This is Tesla trying to do the most valuable thing a company can do in 2026: turn one-time hardware customers into recurring software revenue.
Long-term stock impact (Bull vs Bear):
🐂 Bull case:
Subscription-only expands the funnel: more owners try FSD at $99/mo than dropping $8k upfront.
If “unsupervised” autonomy progresses, Tesla can justify higher monthly pricing over time (Musk has hinted at price increases).
Robotaxi progress (even limited) keeps the “autonomy optionality” narrative alive. This is a big part of Tesla’s multiple.
🐻 Bear case:
Some consumers will hate losing standard lane-keeping features (especially if competitors bundle them).
Regulatory scrutiny remains a real overhang around how these features are marketed and used.
If autonomy timelines slip again, investors may treat the subscription switch as “monetize what you have because the moonshot isn’t here yet.”
Fin’s take:
Tesla’s basically saying: “If you want the future, it’s $99/month.”
If they can raise adoption meaningfully, this could improve the quality of revenue over time. But the stock will still trade on proof of real-world autonomy scaling, not press releases.
🟦 Meta: +5% bounce (and it’s not just “vibes”)
What happened:
Meta popped ~5% Thursday after a Jefferies note reiterated a Buy and highlighted Meta as a compelling value vs other Mag7 peers, including a meaningful P/E discount vs Alphabet.
What Jefferies (and the market) is leaning into:
Meta trading at a notable valuation discount vs Google created a “risk/reward” setup.
Investors want reassurance that AI spend / capex turns into ad-product gains, not just bigger data centers.
Jefferies also points to WhatsApp monetization as a sleeping giant.
Why it continued on Friday:
Once a big name moves on a valuation + catalyst narrative, the market tends to “chase confirmation” into the next event. Meta has earnings coming up next week, so positioning can snowball quickly.
Fin’s take:
Meta’s bounce is the market saying: “Fine. If you’re going to spend like Nvidia, you better monetize like Google.” If earnings guidance suggests ad strength + disciplined spend, this bounce can stick. If not, Meta can whiplash.
🍏 Apple: 8th straight down week
Apple has officially traded red for 8 straight weeks, it’s longest losing streak since May 2022.
What’s driving the weakness:
Apple’s slide looks like a combo of:
“Where’s the next catalyst?” skepticism (AI roadmap concerns show up a lot in recent commentary)
Valuation + sentiment reset after earlier optimism and a market that’s rewarding obvious AI winners over “steady compounders.”
The market increasingly treating Apple as a great company with a tougher near-term narrative (AI, growth rate, and expectations).
What could happen next (2 paths):
Path A: Oversold bounce into earnings
Goldman (per reports) framed the weakness as a potential buying opportunity into earnings.
Path B: “Sell the news” even on a beat
If Apple beats but guides conservatively (or AI messaging feels thin), the stock can stay heavy. (This is the Netflix lesson applied to Apple.)
Fin’s take:
Apple right now is trading like: “Show me the next chapter.”
Not “prove you’re profitable.” That part’s already priced in.
🟩 Nvidia: China & the H200 “green light”
What happened:
Reports indicate Chinese officials have allowed major firms (e.g., Alibaba and others) to prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 chips, a shift from earlier reports suggesting the chips were being blocked at customs.
Why it matters:
If China demand reopens even partially, it could restore a meaningful revenue stream and reduce uncertainty around Nvidia’s China exposure.
Some estimates floating around suggest very large potential volumes/revenue if approvals hold, but treat these as upper-bound scenarios, not guarantees.
It also feeds the narrative that demand is so strong that even geopolitics can’t fully choke it off.
Risk / caveat:
This appears conditional and could still be subject to restrictions, approvals, or shifting policy (and earlier reporting showed real friction at the border).
Fin’s take:
If H200 sales truly re-open, NVDA gets a sentiment boost. Not because the company needs China to win, but because removing a policy overhang often lifts the multiple.
🦈 Fin’s Closing Bite
The market’s theme this week: narratives matter.
Tesla is trying to become a software subscription machine. Meta got a valuation rescue rope. Apple is being asked to prove its AI chapter exists. And Nvidia just got a potential China tailwind, with an asterisk.
📬Did you find this helpful? Please share or forward to a friend.
Sent with bite,
– Fin 🦈
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